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Conformal prediction

By Updated

A distribution-free method that turns a trained model's output into a set of candidate answers that contains the right one with a chosen probability 1. A large set signals uncertainty that a governance rule can route on.

Developed in
ch. 11, Calibration before thresholds
Chapters
ch. 11, AI Defined
Source
1 numbered reference, listed below

Where it is used

2 chapters of the Body of Knowledge use the term. Each link opens the first section that does.

Conformal prediction: mentions per chapter2 mentions of the term across 2 of the 23 chapters of the Body of Knowledge; the chapters the glossary cross-references are drawn solid.Cross-referenced chapterOther chapter10 Reading List: 1 mention10 Reading List111 AI Defined: 1 mention11 AI Defined1No mentions in the other 21 chaptersSource: the Body of Knowledgev0.5.0
Conformal prediction: mentions per chapter2 mentions of the term across 2 of the 23 chapters of the Body of Knowledge; the chapters the glossary cross-references are drawn solid.Cross-referenced chapterOther chapter00010203040506070810 Reading List: 1 mention11011 AI Defined: 1 mention111121314151617181920212223Source: the Body of Knowledge v0.5.0
Mentions per chapter How often each chapter names the term, with the chapters the glossary cross-references drawn solid. The longest bar is where to read the term in use; bars spread across many chapters mark a term that runs through the discipline.
Mentions as a table
Mentions of Conformal prediction per chapter
ChapterMentionsCross-referenced
00 Preface0No
01 Definition0No
02 Why Now0No
03 Values & Principles0No
04 The Stack0No
05 Patterns0No
06 The Role0No
07 Maturity Model0No
08 Regulatory Map0No
10 Reading List1No
11 AI Defined1Yes
12 Governance Program0No
13 Risk Management0No
14 Development0No
15 Deployment0No
16 Fairness & XAI0No
17 Incidents0No
18 EU AI Act0No
19 Privacy & AI0No
20 Existing Law0No
21 AI Laws Worldwide0No
22 Principles & Standards0No
23 AI Agents0No
  • Calibration

    The property that a model's confidence matches its accuracy: of the cases scored 0.9, about nine in ten are right.

  • Abstention band

    A range of scores in which a system does not act on its own but routes the case to a human reviewer.

Sources

  1. [1] A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification (prediction sets with user-specified coverage; arXiv 2107.07511). Angelopoulos and Bates. 2021-07-15. https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.07511 (verified: primary)

Definitions of legal terms paraphrase the cited text, which governs. Dated statements are as of .

Cite this term

García Aibar, J. (2026). Conformal prediction. In AI Governance Engineering: The Thesis & Body of Knowledge (v0.5.0), Glossary. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22956197. https://aigovernanceengineer.com/glossary/conformal-prediction. CC BY 4.0

BibTeX

@misc{aige2026conformalprediction,
  author  = {Jorge García Aibar},
  title   = {{Conformal prediction}},
  note    = {Glossary, AI Governance Engineering: The Thesis \& Body of Knowledge, version 0.5.0},
  year    = {2026},
  doi     = {10.5281/zenodo.22956197},
  url     = {https://aigovernanceengineer.com/glossary/conformal-prediction}
}